A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
